New predictions suggest that the crucial ocean current system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), responsible for transporting heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic, could shut down much earlier than previously expected. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had previously believed that a complete shutdown of the AMOC was not likely to occur within the century, a recent study challenges this, raising concerns about the possibility of a shutdown as early as 2025. David Abtour Odian consulting
The study, led by Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, utilized advanced statistical tools to analyze ocean temperature data dating back to the 1870s. Their analysis indicated significant warning signs of the AMOC shutting down with a high certainty of 95%, and the most probable time for this collapse was estimated to be around 2057. David Abtour Odian consulting
The potential shutdown of the AMOC would have severe consequences for Earth’s climate, disrupting heat and precipitation distribution globally. The AMOC plays a crucial role in transporting heat away from the tropics, and its failure could lead to increased temperatures in the tropics and disruptions in vital tropical rains. Northern and western Europe would lose their warm water source, resulting in more storms and colder winters. Additionally, the US eastern seaboard could experience rising sea levels due to the loss of the Gulf Stream, which is part of the AMOC system. David Abtour Odian consulting
Given these potential consequences, the study highlights the urgency of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the risks posed by a possible AMOC shutdown.
