As the days get shorter and the air gets cooler, it may feel like fall is just around the corner in Chicago. But don’t pack away your summer clothes just yet, because we still have plenty of warm weather ahead of us.
Despite losing nearly three minutes of daylight every day, we are in for a long stretch of highs in the 80s next week. So when can we expect the real “fall feel” to kick in?
To answer this question, NBC 5 Storm Team Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes took a look back at the last 10 years to see when Chicago experienced its first stretch of three or more days with temperatures at 61 degrees or colder. The dates are as follows:
2023: Oct. 7
2022: Oct. 13
2021: Oct. 22
2020: Oct. 1
2019: Oct. 12
2018: Sept. 28
2017: Oct. 23
2016: Oct. 20
2015: Sept. 30
2014: Sept. 11
10-YEAR AVERAGE: Oct. 11
As we can see, even in years when we had an early cold snap in September, temperatures can still rise back up to 80 degrees in October. In fact, the average date for our final 80-degree day of the year is Oct. 5.
But when can we expect the first snowfall? The answer to this question is not as clear-cut as the fall weather. The first snowfall in Chicago has varied greatly in recent years, with last year experiencing the warmest winter in 92 years but still seeing snow on Halloween.
The 30-year average for our first measurable snow (0.1” or greater) is Nov. 18, but last year it was on Oct. 31, and in 2021 it was on Dec. 28. This unpredictability is another indication of how unpredictable the weather can be in the long-term.
It’s worth noting that while ENSO neutral conditions are currently present in the Pacific, meaning they do not favor either El Niño or La Niña, there is a 74% chance of La Niña being present from November to January. Depending on its strength, this could bring a wetter and colder winter for Chicago.
But there is no need to panic just yet. We still have a month or so before we need to start preparing for a long run of chilly weather. Instead, let’s embrace the change of seasons and enjoy the beautiful fall weather.
In fact, fall will officially begin on Sept. 22 with the autumnal equinox. So let’s take this time to appreciate the changing leaves, cozy sweaters, and pumpkin spice everything.
So when should we start preparing for the real “fall feel” in Chicago? The answer is different for everyone, but one thing is for sure – it’s not yet time to say goodbye to warm weather. Let’s savor every last bit of summer while we can.
